I was wondering this morning what has been happening in Timor-Leste since it’s about two years since I finished my honours thesis on its political relationships with Australia and Indonesia.  As such, issues concerning its domestic stability tends to catch my eye.  Anyway, two articles are of particular interest:

The first is that last month, Jose Ramos Horta in addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York made some statements to the effect that the state has been at its most peaceful in recent weeks since the assasination attempts on himself and Xanana Gusmao.

My original intent was to scrutinise this idea more closely, but after reading through Ramos Horta’s address it appears that Timor-Leste has been donating tens of million US dollars to states in its wider region as well as far as Cuba.

Its efforts include
- US$50,000 to Indonesia post-tsunami in December 2005,
- US$500,000 to victims of the Sirchuan earthquake,
- US$500,000 to victims of cyclone Nargis in Myanmar on 2 May (through the ASEAN Secretariat),
- US$500,000 for victims of cyclones Gustav and Ike to Cuban authorities.

These are considerable amounts given that Timor-Leste is a weak state in comparison to its neighbours Australia and Indonesia.  Being a sceptic, I wonder if these donations are 100% altruistic, or, is there some hidden agenda for the former Indonesian state.  Could this be another attempt to move away from being a ‘dependent’ state and diversify its connections in the region and the broader international system?  Perhaps Ramos Horta is correct in that,

since [the assasination attempt] the situation in Timor-Leste has been the most peacegul in many years without politically motivated violence registered so far and even common criminality has been significantly reduced.

Has Timor-Leste entered a new phase of peace as this article suggests? Or is it too soon to determine how lasting this will be?

Sources:

United Nations, ‘Timor-Leste entering period of peace, its leader tells high-level UN meeting’, 25-09-2008

Statement by H.E. Dr Jose Ramos-Horta, President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate 1996, to the 63rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, New York, 25-09-2008

Global warming might benefit the Straits of Malacca.

In an article on the New Straits Times, the director-general of the Maritime Institute of Malaysia Datuk Cheah Kong Wai has claimed that warmer waters will reduce pollution in the straits.  This is in the context of the permanent opening up of northeast and northwest passages through the Arctic region once sufficient ice has melted.  This will divert traffic forced through Southeast Asia and instead through these waterways which are usually only navigable during summer months – resulting in less pollution and erosion for Malaysia and other littoral states.

Cheah states,

“The Northeast Passage only benefits ships from Europe and North America going to Korea, Japan and China (and vice versa). Those that stop here will continue to use the straits as it is still a shorter route (for them).”

It’s also expected that such a change in shipping lines will not affect Southeast Asia too much – as those ships normally bound for the region will continue to call there.  It does however lead to consider the effect on insurance and shipping cost reduction, and opens up matters of sovereignty of the Arctic waters.

This issue is not unexpected either, since the area has been monitored since 1978 by the European Space Agency (ESA), and it has popped up in news articles for several years now.  Nonetheless this has considerable strategic implications for states in the international system, and there’s indication this matter is already being monitored – Scott G. Borgerson for instance wrote on the ‘Arctic Meltdown’ in Foreign Affairs earlier this year.

I wonder though, will there be a emergence in Russian, Canadian or Greenlandic piracy?

Sources:

Marc Lourdes, ‘Melting polar ice cuts pollution in Straits of Malacca’, New Straits Times Online, 07-10-2008

BBC News, ‘Warming ‘Opens Northwest Passage”, 14-09-2007

ABC News Online:  Sci-Tech News, ‘Arctic thaw may open ship lanes, but risks high’, 10-11-2004

Scott G. Borgerson, ‘Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming’, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2008

This is the third post in nearly as many days on this topic, but what can I say…I’m intrigued.  Here’s some headlines that have been running about the Somalia piracy event…

Elizabeth A. Kennedy, ‘US Navy says crew on hijacked ship off Somalia OK,’ Associated Press, 2008-10-07

The US Navy requested to see the initial crew of the Faina – and photos are circulating that show them on deck in good health.  One of the crew died early on in the hijacking from a reported heart condition or hypertension.

‘Somali pirates seize Greek ship,’ Agence France-Presse, 2008-09-19, p. 12

Somali pirates have boarded a Greek ship, the Centauri, off the coast of Mogadishu in the Indian Ocean.

‘US aircraft carrier in SAfrica amid piracy fears,’ Agence France Presse, 2008-10-07

The US nuclear powered USS Theodore Roosevelt has docked in Cape Town to visit South Africa and assist with problems including piracy, illegal fishing and oil bunkering.  It is to conduct some exercises at sea with the South African Navy.

Mohamed Olad Hassan, ‘US: 4 failed Somali pirate attacks in 24 hours,’ Associated Press, 2008-10-05

There have been four failed Somali pirate attacks in the past 24 hours, even though there are six US warships proximate to the Faina.

Edith M. Lederer, ‘UN seeks new fight against Somali pirates’ Associated Press, 2008-10-04

Lastly, the UN has drafted a resolution for maritime states to deploy military ships to Somalia to fight piracy.  The resolution allows for ‘the neccessary means’ to deal with piracy and only applies to the area off the coast of Somalia.

The standoff continues between Somalian pirates aboard the Ukranian Faina.  It seems the $20 million being demanded for return of the ship is 10 times what is normally requested of vessels. In addition to the Russian frigate there are half a dozen US warships keeping watch, with aims to prevent any of the tanks or other armaments being taken onshore.  This situation has been cited by a number of sources (see below) for pushing upward shipping costs, such as insurance.

Professor of Politics and International Studies and the Chair of Security, Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies at Murdoch University, Sam Makinda has stated that:

According to shipping industry sources, insurance costs for ships plying the area have increased tenfold in the past few years, and some insurers have created an underwriting speciality devoted to Somalia.

Makinda also points out how the Straits of Malacca in recent years was more dangerous a region than waters off Africa but this has now changed.  Catherine Zara Raymond has also typefied pirates in Southeast Asia versus those in Africa (from memory she discusses it in this video) – with the former ‘type’ being less violent or inclined to killing crew on boarded ships compared to the latter.

Apparantly however the Somali government has given ‘foreign powers a blank cheque’ to use force against the pirates.  It will certainly be interesting to see how this situation resolves itself, and what, if any, cooperation occurs between the former Cold War antagonists.

It’s been a busy week:

A Ukrainian ship, the MV Faina carrying 33 72-T tanks was held up by Somali pirates on Thursday 4th September and are demanding $20 million as a ransom.  US navy ship, the guided missile destroyer USS Howard has been monitoring the ship at a distance of one nautical mile, and Russian warship Neustrashimy is reported to be approaching the standoff too.  EU states are also considering contributing three frigates.  The ‘pirates’ have held the original crew captive, and though the captors reiterate that they are safe and have been celebrating the end of Ramadan, one of the 21 captive has reportedly died of ‘hypertension’.

The Faina is also carrying ammunition and grenade launchers and was initially destined for Mombasa in Kenya.  There is another warship monitoring the situation yet it’s not clear what nationality the ship is.

The situation is significant in the context of the high piracy rates off Africa’s coast, and its proximity to the Suez Canal, which according to the Energy Information Administration, is one of several world oil transit chokepoints, taking 4.5 million barrels per day in 2006.

See:

http://africa.reuters.com/top/news/usnJOE4900QD.html
http://news.scotsman.com/world/Defiant-pirates-repeat-20m-ransom.4544103.jp
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ihiCUqAF4ZNT_8sWoX3MNdUAzzZg
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Background.html

1) China’s National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) is to build an oil refinery in Tianjin as a joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft.  Following the signing of the agreement later in October the refinery should be able to accomodate 15 million tons of crude oil each year.

To put this into perspective, China consumed nearly 8 million barrels of oil in 2007, which stands at just over 9% of world consumption.  It’s also the third largest country in terms of refinery capacity (in the world), and the largest in the Asia Pacific, followed by Japan, India, South Korea and Singapore.

2) Indian refineries are reported as producing 2.5% more compared to last year yet this is the slowest growth in three months, due to Reliance’s facility:

Reliance’s 660,000 barrel per day refinery at Jamnagar in western Gujarat state processed 5.7% less crude after its fluidized catalytic cracking unit developed a problem for about two weeks.

To put this refinery into perspective, India was the fourth largest consumer in the world in 2007 at nearly 3 million barrels per day in 2007.  Its total refining capacity also neared 3 million barrels per day but still exceeds its consumption rates.

Antara reports that Australian and Indonesian governments have agreed to undertake defence cooperation after the countries’ ministers for defence Juwono Sudarsono and Joel Fitzgibbon held a meeting on the 18th September.

The agreement has covered cooperation in military industry, given only 30% of Indonesia’s military equipment is sourced domestically, as well as maritime security issues.

Fitzgibbon is paraphrased in Antara:

[Fitzgibbon]  said the Asia Pacific region is very important for Australia considering that its security was no longer a regional matter but has become a global issue in line with increasing population and economic growth in the region.

Thats an interesting point – I wonder how Australia ought to go about managing this as a global issue rather than a regional security matter?  Does this mean greater efforts on Australia’s part for multilateral cooperation in the Asia Pacific?  I agree there are factors influencing and being influenced throughout the international system concerning Australian maritime security, but surely a regional focus (in terms of maritime security at least) is of considerable importance to begin with?  I guess what I’m saying is, should one focus most resources on a narrow spectrum of issues or risk spreading them thin in addressing as much as possible?

Malaysia has gone and bought itself some new toys, namely two Scorpene submarines to be used to monitor the Malacca Strait.  The subs are French made by DCNS (Direction des Constructions Navales Services) and were ordered back in 2006.  They’ve been named KD Tunku Abdul Rahman and KD Tun Abdul Razak, after Malaysia’s first and second prime ministers.

The Scorpenes according to Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) chief Laksamana Datuk Abdul Aziz Jaafar will provide stealth capabilities against naval opponents.  A correspondent from Jane’s Defence Weekly claims that:

“To fight piracy, the submarine is more suitable as a surveillance vehicle, while other measures such as deploying surface attack vessels should be used if the number of enemy combatants on a seized ship is many.”

Interesting stuff!  In other news, DCNS has supplied a number of other states worldwide and in the Southeast Asia region with defence systems including:

- Singapore – RSS Supreme (73), the last of six Formidable-Class Frigates built as part of the New Frigate Programme

- Thailand – two harpoon-and-grid landing systems and two Samahé traversing systems to be delivered from early 2009

See these links for the complete info I’ve poached mentioned above.

I found this article on the Yemen Post this morning while trawling google news:

Al-Qaeda Changes Tactics;“We Denounce Targeting the Oil Industry whatever the excuse may be,” Al-Qaeda Leader Says

Certainly an attention grabbing headline!  Unfortunately there doesn’t yet appear to be any other reports online supporting this statement, however an anonymous Al Qaeda leader reported to the Yemen Post that its organisational structure has altered from a ‘pyramidial hierarchy’ to a ‘clustered builduo’, and that such decentralisation makes Al Qaeda’s operations easier to conduct.

In terms of oil, however, the article reports that:

Though targeting oil and other facilities has been made in retaliation to the injustice and arbitrary arrests towards Al-Qaeda followers, he declared that it is illegal. He claims to be against it and says, “Oil is our wealth and property. It is not the property of a president, a king or a minister. Though it is consumed by our enemies, they will depart one day and it will return to us.” “I denounce targeting oil industry whatever the excuse may be.”

and

Al-Qaeda higher leadership always calls on their followers to move away from ‘desert areas’, as defined by him, stressing any attack that does not distress the enemy is not practical.

These excerpts can be viewed mostly in light of the 6 October 2002 Limburg attack, whereby a French flagged oil tanker’s starboard was rammed by a TNT laden dinghy in the Gulf of Aden.  The fire and explosion that followed caused 90,000 barrels of crude oil to spill into the Gulf, killed one person and injured 12 others.

Either way, if this is the case, I suppose it is a good thing for all actors involved in the oil industries–which is arguably nearly everyone–but it’s also concerning how this will be offset in terms of what might be considered a target instead.

Six states’ navies are participating in an anti-terrorism exercise through the Southeast Asia Cooperation Against Terrorism (SEACAT) 2008, which has been operating annually since 2002.

Navies involved include Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand and the Philippines.  I’m not sure which specific part of their navies are involved but FYI their formal names are:

Singapore – The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN)
Indonesia – Indonesian Navy – Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut, or (TNI-AL)
Malaysia – Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) / Tentera Laut DiRaja Malaysia (TLDM)
Brunei – Royal Brunei Navy / Tentera Laut Diraja Brunei (TLDB)
Thailand – Royal Thai Navy
Philippines – Philippine Navy (PN) / Hukbong Dagat ng Pilipinas

The United States Navy is also involved, and has been providing some facilities for the operations and information sharing to be carried out, such as:

Ships involved in the exercises include Tortuga, USS Howard (DDG 83), USS Ford (FFG 54), USCGC Morgenthau (WHEC 722) and U.S. military sealift command ships USNS Safeguard (T-ARS 50), USNS 1st Lt. Baldomero Lopez (T-AK 3010) and USNS Cpl. Louis J. Hauge (T-AK 3011). In addition, a U.S. P-3C from VP-16 is participating in the exercise.

This sounds like quite a valuable exercise whether if it results in some form of cooperative activity between the states in the region, especially given the geographical fragmentation of the Southeast Asian region, which increases the challenges for states trying to protect against terrorist activity – so much area to patrol with limited resources.

Capt. Michael W. Selby, commander of US Destroyer Squadron One is directing the activity.  Selby argued on the United States Navy website:

“SEACAT is a means of contributing to the capabilities of our friends and allies.”

and

“The security of all waterways is vital to peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region, and we applaud the ongoing efforts of regional nations in combating maritime threats. Additionally, we feel that personal relationships built during these types of opportunities are mutually beneficial.”

I agree that secure waterways can greatly benefit the region, if it can be ever attained.  Somehow, though, it’s going to be a difficult goal to achieve in waters such as the Malacca Straits, whereby littoral states Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are quite steadfast in their refusal to allow other states assist in its maritime security.  The US and China for instance have an interest in ensuring the continued trade of commodities such as crude oil through the region, given their reliance on fossil fuels sourced from Middle Eastern and African states.

Can’t wait for more information about how the exercises went!

See these articles for more info